Scotland sets up research partnership to plan for extreme weather
A research partnership launched in Edinburgh on 11 November will test whether longer-range forecasts can help Scotland prepare for floods and droughts. The Scotland Living Lab brings Newcastle University and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency together with people who use forecasts to make decisions.
A research partnership launched in Edinburgh on 11 November will test whether longer-range forecasts can help Scotland prepare for floods and droughts. The Scotland Living Lab brings Newcastle University and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency together with people who use forecasts to make decisions.
The work asks a different question from a flood warning: what can organisations do months ahead, when there is still time to plan but the weather is harder to predict? The researchers want to find out whether information about risks over seasons or several years can help people make decisions at those timescales.
The partnership is part of EXTREME-FUTURES, a ten-year research programme led by Newcastle University’s Hayley Fowler. The programme will examine advances in climate science, modelling and artificial intelligence. At the launch, participants discussed which hazards and future scenarios the Scottish work should address.
SEPA points to the strain at both ends of the water cycle. Scotland recorded its wettest two-day period in October 2023 in rainfall records going back to 1891, the agency says, citing the Met Office. Two years later, SEPA reported more days of low flow on the Lower Spey than in any previous year of its 70-year record.
Existing flood forecasts and alerts remain the route for immediate information. One test for the research is whether it can produce forecasts that are reliable enough and early enough to change a decision. Separately, SEPA says draft flood risk management plans will go out for consultation on 22 December.
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